The Nationals signed right-handed pitcher Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year contract today. The deal is worth $2 million plus an extra $3 million in incentives.

As far as the baseball world is concerned, it was just a matter of time. For the past two weeks, every news source has indicated that the Nationals were favorites to sign Wang. It finally happened today, and it is just one of many moves that Mike Rizzo has completed to improve National League-worst Nationals for 2010.

Still, many questions surround the Wang signing. First and foremost, has Wang fully recovered from his injury that limited him to 42 innings pitched in 2009 and 95 in 2008? Second, assuming that Wang is fully healthy and ready to pitch in 2010, will he regain his 2006 and 2007 form in which he won 19 games each year?

I can answer this simply and quickly by saying I do not know. Neither, for that matter, does Mike Rizzo or any other executive in baseball. For that reason, a pitcher with a 55-26 career win-loss record and 3.99 FIP signed a one-year, $5 million contract. In fact, if we take a step back, the unknown health status of Wang is the reason he was non-tendered by the Yankees in the first place. This last point is very scary. It proves one of two things: a.) the Yankees know something about Wang’s rehab that other teams do not; or b.) they are very confident with their rotation (which currently consists of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Andy Pettitte, and Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes). Given Chamberlain’s inability to pitch more than 100 innings effectively and Hughes’ inconsistent performance as a starter, one would think the Yankees would want to retain as much rotation depth as possible. Most likely, Brian Cashman just could not find a spot on the team for Wang.

As an avid reader of Fangraphs.com, I was navigating the site today when I found an article written about Wang. In it, Joe Pawlikowski suggests that Wang’s release point has changed since his successful years in the Bronx. Wang, who typically threw three-quarter, was releasing the ball at a more overhand angle. As a result, Wang’s out-pitch, his almighty sinker, was acting more like a flat two-seam fastball. The results are predictable: when a sinkerballer’s sinker does not sink, the ball travels fast and hard out of the ballpark. Wang’s GB/FB ratio dropped to 1.98 in 2009, .72 below his career mark of 2.70. His line drive rate actually fell, but that was outweighed by his ballooning FB% (27.0 % compared to career mark of 22.2%) and HR/FB % (17.1 % compared to career mark of 8.2%). Besides being astronomic, those rates are unsustainable.

The outcome of Wang’s extremely high flyball rates was 1.50 HR/9, or 0.95 higher than his career mark of 0.55. That is a huge difference. Even the balls that stayed in play were hit to places where there were no fielders, as evidenced by a .397 BABIP last season.

Upon combining all of these numbers, you will get a result that looks something like a 1-6 win-loss record with a 9.64 ERA. Even the most casual baseball fan can tell you how bad that line is. The good news is we know why Wang pitched poorly in 2009. The bad news is we do not know if he will be able to regain his form.

Needless to say, if Wang regains his form, $5 million for a pitcher of his caliber is a bargain. If he is, as they say, “damaged goods,” $5 million is a big waste. This deal is one that I would classify as medium-risk, high-reward. Even if Wang does not pitch as well as he has, a team like the Nationals has nothing to lose.

Hello, everyone.  Welcome to the Washington Nationals section of the website.  This is my first post here, hopefully with many more to come, and I am looking forward to giving you all the Nationals news and notes.

Hope springs eternal in the depths of winter. With just one week before pitchers and catchers report to Arizona and Florida for Spring Training, even Nationals fans have high hopes for the 2010 season.

Ever since team President Stan Kasten was hired in 2006, he has been urging fans to follow “The Plan.” After all, you can’t make chicken soup with chicken shit. The team was going nowhere, and a new foundation had to be laid. Coming off of back-to-back 59-win seasons, fans are restless and in need of noticeable improvement. Thankfully, one man understands this. Mike Rizzo, the Nationals general manager, has taken strides to try to improve the team for the 2010 season. The Nationals have signed pitchers Matt Capps, Jason Marquis, and Tyler Walker, catcher Ivan Rodriguez, and most recently second baseman Adam Kennedy. The team is also currently in talks with, and appears to be the front-runner to sign, former Yankees’ starter Chien-Ming Wang.

These additions are certainly not a star-studded cast of players. However, the signings do signify the end of an era which was often associated -- by fans, of course – with the Lerners’ unwillingness to spend money to improve the team. Well, guess what. The team went out and spent $26+ million, and in the end, the Nationals are just about good enough to win 75 games.

75 wins is not a lot. 75 wins is below average. Yet, 75 wins should signal a vast improvement over the Nationals of yesteryear. Players like Ryan Zimmerman, John Lannan, and Jordan Zimmermann should be around for many years. The next generation of Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen, and Derek Norris will arrive in the next couple of seasons, and they will add to the core of young players with which the Nationals hope to win. The key to transforming the Nationals from laughingstock of the National League to perennial winners is no different from any piece of infrastructure: a solid foundation. And that, I believe, is what the Nationals have.

This is also why I believe that Nationals fans should trust in “The Plan.” Lasting success is not achieved by buying every free agent in sight. It starts from within the organization. Many people will point out that the Yankees have had success via free agency. As much as I dislike the Yankees, they have actually become a model organization for developing prospects. If you want proof, try this test. Come opening day, count how many players on the Yankees roster were drafted by them. Then count how many on the Nationals were drafted by the Nationals. You will be surprised. But this is changing, and in just a few years, the count will double.

For now, signing average free agents like Jason Marquis or Matt Capps is acceptable. It will make the Nationals a below average team – maybe even average. By 2011, the only complaint fans will have is how hard it will be to find seats at Nationals Park in October.

Thank you for reading my inaugural blog post here at Sportstalkbuzz.com. In the upcoming weeks, I plan on analyzing the different position battles that will take place in March, who should make the team, and many other things involving the Washington Nationals. I encourage open discussion, but I do request that the comment section stays clean. I enjoy writing these articles, and I hope that you will enjoy reading them.