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Around the Horn: Nationals Catchers |
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Written by Sam Diament on Monday, 01 March 2010 21:55
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 This series of articles will span the length of Spring Training. I will discuss objectively who the Nationals will likely have starting at each position when the team heads north to Washington, D.C. I will also add my opinion (because it’s my blog, after all!) on whom the Nationals should take north.
The tentative schedule for the rest of the articles looks like this:
3/1/2010: Catchers
3/5/2010: Corner Infielders
3/8/2010: Middle Infielders
3/12/2010: Outfielders
3/15/2010: Starting Pitchers
3/19/2010: Bullpen
Aside from starting pitching, the Nationals’ weakest position is catcher. As it stands now, the two catchers that will begin the regular season with the team are Ivan Rodriguez and Wil Nieves. If that is the way the season ends, Nationals fans will be in for a long year.
Ivan Rodriguez’s last good offensive year came in 2004. He posted 24.5 wRAA backed by a .381 wOBA. Since then, he has not had a year with positive wRAA. Put simply, Rodriguez is no longer a good hitter. In fact, he is downright bad offensively. I have to believe that Mike Rizzo knew this when he signed Pudge. This begs the question: is Rodriguez still good enough defensively to warrant a two-year, $6 million contract?
Last season, Pudge threw out 35 percent of the base runners who attempted to steal on him. Total Zone Rating has him as a +3 defender the last two seasons. Given his age (38), it is likely that these numbers will go down. However, the answer to my initial question seems to be, yes, he is worth $3 million defensively if he plays every day. The caveat with this is that he will definitely not play every day. So, maybe his real value lies in the fact that he has gained a lot of experience working with various pitchers throughout his 19 year career. If Rodriguez can help lower the amount of runs the Nationals give up and move them out of last place in the rankings, then Rodriguez is certainly worth $3 million per year.
Rodriguez was signed to add depth to an organization that lacks catching talent that is close to Major League level. Of course, this situation only arose when Jesus Flores suffered a series of injuries and setbacks in 2009. Eventually tearing his rotator cuff, Flores missed the end of last season and will begin 2010 on the Disabled List.
The timing of Flores’ injury could have not been worse. Flores got off to a spectacular start in 2009, hitting .301/.371/.505. He was aided by a .375 BABIP, but considering how few groundballs he hit, it is conceivable that he was not getting lucky but driving the ball very well. Of course, all of this production came in just 106 plate appearances. I have often been accused of being naïve, but even I know that his production was likely due to a very small sample size.
The reason I mention Flores is because had he not suffered the injury, or had he been certain to be healthy by Opening Day, he would have been penciled in as the starting catcher. Now, his entire career is in jeopardy. This season would have been – and still could be – a very important one for Flores with Derek Norris waiting in the wings.
To sum it up, the Nationals will start the season with Rodriguez and Nieves catching, barring an injury. If, and this is a huge if, Flores recovers fully from his injury and is able to return to the lineup, he will again be the starting catcher. In that case, Nieves and his wonderful merengue batting music would be the odd man out.
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Sound of Silence Plays in Tampa |
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Written by Stephanie Geosits on Saturday, 27 February 2010 01:04
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 It’s quiet. Too quiet. From the looks of things, and lack of sound bites emanating from Legends Field in Tampa, it seems like the Yankees are having a very calm and uneventful spring training thus far.
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Twins Pitching Staff Stacked |
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Written by Chad McIntyre on Wednesday, 24 February 2010 12:25
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Pitchers Already in Full Gear.
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Jays Shore Up Catching Position with Molina |
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Written by Ben Fisher on Friday, 19 February 2010 20:11
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 The Blue Jays made what is likely their last dip into free agency today, signing catcher Jose Molina to a deal that with pay him $400,000 with a 2011 team option for $1.2 million.
In doing so, they've created a positional battle for the back-up catcher slot between Molina and Raul Chavez to be played out over spring training. Fellow free agent signee John Buck will likely handle starting duties, but only saw action in 59 games last season due to back injuries and has never played more than 118 games in any season.
Molina doesn't have much of a bat (career average is .235), but plays excellent defence and can throw out his share of runners. He is also the second of the catching Molina brothers to don a Blue Jays uni, after older brother Bengie played in Toronto during the 2006 season.
Molina boasts two World Series rings (2002 Angels and 2009 Yankees), and holds the distinction of being the last player to hit a home run at the old Yankee Stadium.
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Why the Jays Will Lose 100 |
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Written by Ben Fisher on Thursday, 18 February 2010 23:48
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There is a harsh reality about the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays, and that is this: they are an all-around weak team amidst an increasingly strong division.
I don't mean this as a criticism of first-year GM Alex Anthopoulos, who has acknowledged that there will be plenty of difficulties in the early-goings as the franchise shifts its focus toward developing young talent and re-stocking the farm system (ironically, the same things that J.P. Ricciardi said he would do when he was hired as GM in 2001). Ultimately, the franchise is moving in the right direction, but that move seems destined to be a slow one.
As far as this season is concerned, it could get ugly. As in, 100 losses ugly. Sure, they have a few nice pieces moving forward (Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Travis Snider and Ricky Romero, to name a few), but there are two central reasons that this team looks primed for one of the worst seasons in franchise history.
Firstly, the rest of the teams in the AL East also have nice pieces. Of course, little needs to be said about the defending champion Yankees and an already strong Red Sox team that added John Lackey, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro. The Rays, meanwhile, have another year of growth and maturation under their belts and should improve upon last year's slight letdown.
However, the main concern for the Jays within the division is, believe it or not, the Orioles. They aren't likely to contend for the division crown, but Baltimore has made some significant strides and should vastly improve upon their 64 wins from last year. In addition to a solid core of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Brian Roberts and catching phenom Matt Wieters, the O's added Kevin Millwood and Garrett Atkins, and re-acquired Miguel Tejada.
These changes are not good news for the Jays, who have to play each of their AL East foes 19 times this year. That's 76 of 162 games against strong and/or improved squads, not to mention another 27 games against 2009 play-off teams and three against the World Series runner-up Philles (armed with newly acquired Roy Halladay).
The second reason is more internal - specifically, the pitching staff. Even with Doc in tow last season, the Jays' staff ranked 22nd in the league in team ERA. Of their 10 complete games, nine were courtesy of Halladay. Of their four shutouts, all four belonged to number 32. And just think of what the team needs to replace: 239 innings pitched, 32 starts, 22 quality starts and a 2.79 ERA.
And where are they going to fill the void? Well, you got me. Of the prospective rotation (Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Marc Rzepcynski), no one has come close to matching any of those numbers in any individual season. Throw in a few injuries over the course of the season (these are the Jays, after all) and you could be looking at one big mess.
Sigh.
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Pitchers and Catchers Report |
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Written by Ben Fisher on Thursday, 18 February 2010 18:05
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It's around this time of year that baseball fans will often hear the old clichés like ‘hope springs eternal' and ‘everyone has an equal shot at World Series glory'. Ha! Just ask any Pirates fan how true that is.
But the start of spring training and those four hallowed words in the title of this post do have a certain majestic quality. Baseball's on its way, and along with it comes summer and shorts and sunglasses and... okay, I just peered outside to falling snow and realized that April is still a ways away.
But back to this idea of hope.
Hope may not always be realistic, but it is often one of the few things that teams have to hang on to. Take the Blue Jays, for instance. Here is a team that has hit the reset button and will begin a new chapter under rookie GM Alex Anthopoulos by without long-time franchise cornerstone Roy Halladay. In Halladay's stead, they've added a slew of prospects and bargain bin types that look like they could tease Jays fans with tastes of what might be.
Is this a play-off contender? Certainly not, but it is a team of maybes that should excel in the spring (with very little settled in the rotation or bullpen, most hurlers will be pitching to impress) and allow fans to dream.
Can Aaron Hill and Adam Lind continue to grow as the heart of Toronto's line-up? Can Vernon Wells bounce back and play like a $126 million dollar player? Can Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch rebound from injuries to become key pieces of the rotation? Can Ricky Romero claim the throne as staff ace? Can newcomers like Brandon Morrow, Kevin Gregg, Alex Gonzalez, John Buck and Dana Eveland make an immediate impact? Can the Jays' solid stable of youngsters (Travis Snider, Kyle Drabek and Brett Wallace, to name a few) lead this team towards more prosperous times down the road?
This will be a fascinating team to watch this season, not so much for what is as for what could be. It is to Anthopoulos' credit that there is a real big picture idea on how this team will progressively develop. In the meantime, let's just remain hopeful and enjoy a fun season of the boys of summer... eventually.
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Written by Sam Diament on Tuesday, 16 February 2010 20:23
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The Nationals signed right-handed pitcher Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year contract today. The deal is worth $2 million plus an extra $3 million in incentives.
As far as the baseball world is concerned, it was just a matter of time. For the past two weeks, every news source has indicated that the Nationals were favorites to sign Wang. It finally happened today, and it is just one of many moves that Mike Rizzo has completed to improve National League-worst Nationals for 2010.
Still, many questions surround the Wang signing. First and foremost, has Wang fully recovered from his injury that limited him to 42 innings pitched in 2009 and 95 in 2008? Second, assuming that Wang is fully healthy and ready to pitch in 2010, will he regain his 2006 and 2007 form in which he won 19 games each year?
I can answer this simply and quickly by saying I do not know. Neither, for that matter, does Mike Rizzo or any other executive in baseball. For that reason, a pitcher with a 55-26 career win-loss record and 3.99 FIP signed a one-year, $5 million contract. In fact, if we take a step back, the unknown health status of Wang is the reason he was non-tendered by the Yankees in the first place. This last point is very scary. It proves one of two things: a.) the Yankees know something about Wang’s rehab that other teams do not; or b.) they are very confident with their rotation (which currently consists of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Andy Pettitte, and Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes). Given Chamberlain’s inability to pitch more than 100 innings effectively and Hughes’ inconsistent performance as a starter, one would think the Yankees would want to retain as much rotation depth as possible. Most likely, Brian Cashman just could not find a spot on the team for Wang.
As an avid reader of Fangraphs.com, I was navigating the site today when I found an article written about Wang. In it, Joe Pawlikowski suggests that Wang’s release point has changed since his successful years in the Bronx. Wang, who typically threw three-quarter, was releasing the ball at a more overhand angle. As a result, Wang’s out-pitch, his almighty sinker, was acting more like a flat two-seam fastball. The results are predictable: when a sinkerballer’s sinker does not sink, the ball travels fast and hard out of the ballpark. Wang’s GB/FB ratio dropped to 1.98 in 2009, .72 below his career mark of 2.70. His line drive rate actually fell, but that was outweighed by his ballooning FB% (27.0 % compared to career mark of 22.2%) and HR/FB % (17.1 % compared to career mark of 8.2%). Besides being astronomic, those rates are unsustainable.
The outcome of Wang’s extremely high flyball rates was 1.50 HR/9, or 0.95 higher than his career mark of 0.55. That is a huge difference. Even the balls that stayed in play were hit to places where there were no fielders, as evidenced by a .397 BABIP last season.
Upon combining all of these numbers, you will get a result that looks something like a 1-6 win-loss record with a 9.64 ERA. Even the most casual baseball fan can tell you how bad that line is. The good news is we know why Wang pitched poorly in 2009. The bad news is we do not know if he will be able to regain his form.
Needless to say, if Wang regains his form, $5 million for a pitcher of his caliber is a bargain. If he is, as they say, “damaged goods,” $5 million is a big waste. This deal is one that I would classify as medium-risk, high-reward. Even if Wang does not pitch as well as he has, a team like the Nationals has nothing to lose.
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Written by Sam Diament on Monday, 15 February 2010 23:49
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Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Washington Nationals section of the website. This is my first post here, hopefully with many more to come, and I am looking forward to giving you all the Nationals news and notes.
Hope springs eternal in the depths of winter. With just one week before pitchers and catchers report to Arizona and Florida for Spring Training, even Nationals fans have high hopes for the 2010 season.
Ever since team President Stan Kasten was hired in 2006, he has been urging fans to follow “The Plan.” After all, you can’t make chicken soup with chicken shit. The team was going nowhere, and a new foundation had to be laid. Coming off of back-to-back 59-win seasons, fans are restless and in need of noticeable improvement. Thankfully, one man understands this. Mike Rizzo, the Nationals general manager, has taken strides to try to improve the team for the 2010 season. The Nationals have signed pitchers Matt Capps, Jason Marquis, and Tyler Walker, catcher Ivan Rodriguez, and most recently second baseman Adam Kennedy. The team is also currently in talks with, and appears to be the front-runner to sign, former Yankees’ starter Chien-Ming Wang.
These additions are certainly not a star-studded cast of players. However, the signings do signify the end of an era which was often associated -- by fans, of course – with the Lerners’ unwillingness to spend money to improve the team. Well, guess what. The team went out and spent $26+ million, and in the end, the Nationals are just about good enough to win 75 games.
75 wins is not a lot. 75 wins is below average. Yet, 75 wins should signal a vast improvement over the Nationals of yesteryear. Players like Ryan Zimmerman, John Lannan, and Jordan Zimmermann should be around for many years. The next generation of Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen, and Derek Norris will arrive in the next couple of seasons, and they will add to the core of young players with which the Nationals hope to win. The key to transforming the Nationals from laughingstock of the National League to perennial winners is no different from any piece of infrastructure: a solid foundation. And that, I believe, is what the Nationals have.
This is also why I believe that Nationals fans should trust in “The Plan.” Lasting success is not achieved by buying every free agent in sight. It starts from within the organization. Many people will point out that the Yankees have had success via free agency. As much as I dislike the Yankees, they have actually become a model organization for developing prospects. If you want proof, try this test. Come opening day, count how many players on the Yankees roster were drafted by them. Then count how many on the Nationals were drafted by the Nationals. You will be surprised. But this is changing, and in just a few years, the count will double.
For now, signing average free agents like Jason Marquis or Matt Capps is acceptable. It will make the Nationals a below average team – maybe even average. By 2011, the only complaint fans will have is how hard it will be to find seats at Nationals Park in October.
Thank you for reading my inaugural blog post here at Sportstalkbuzz.com. In the upcoming weeks, I plan on analyzing the different position battles that will take place in March, who should make the team, and many other things involving the Washington Nationals. I encourage open discussion, but I do request that the comment section stays clean. I enjoy writing these articles, and I hope that you will enjoy reading them.
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The Undeniable Wisdom of Crash Davis |
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Written by Ron Burr on Friday, 12 February 2010 13:45
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 Once again an Orioles player combines his million dollar arm with his five cent head...
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Sad day for Orioles' fans |
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Written by Ron Burr on Thursday, 11 February 2010 02:54
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Already buried under 4+ feet of snow, the Orioles get more bad news...
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